The Evolution of Drones and the Counter-Drone Systems challenges in the field of contemporary warfare

(Comparative Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020) and the Russia–Ukraine War (2022–2025))

Abstract

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have emerged as the fastest-growing and most transformative technological development in modern warfare since the introduction of tanks and aircraft in the early 20th century. Originally designed for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering, drones have evolved into cost-effective, highly lethal platforms capable of reshaping tactical, operational, and strategic dynamics on the battlefield. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020) became the first widely recognized “drone war,” demonstrating that relatively inexpensive UAVs could decisively neutralize traditional armored formations, air defense networks, and other high-value military assets. Following this, the Russia–Ukraine War (2022–2025) scaled the phenomenon to a global level, where drones assumed not only tactical relevance but also operational-strategic significance, influencing force deployment, campaign planning, and defense-industrial production. By November 2025, first-person view (FPV) and kamikaze drones, costing between $400 and $1,500, accounted for 62–70% of confirmed equipment losses in Ukraine and over 90% in Nagorno-Karabakh. This creates an unprecedented economic asymmetry, with cost ratios reaching up to 1:25000, challenging long-standing assumptions of force parity and effectiveness. Conventional counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) have repeatedly proven insufficient against autonomous, fiber-optic-guided, and swarm-capable drones, exposing critical vulnerabilities in contemporary air defense doctrines. This paper conducts a detailed comparative analysis of the two conflicts, highlighting technological innovations, economic drivers, and tactical doctrines behind drone effectiveness. It examines the limitations of current C-UAS technologies and proposes a conceptual framework for a next-generation, multi-layered defensive architecture. The study underscores the profound strategic implications of drone proliferation and provides actionable insights for military planners, defense industries, and policymakers seeking to address the evolving challenges posed by unmanned aerial systems in modern warfare.