Georgia's Multi-Vector Choice: Balancing Between China and the West

Abstract

This research examines the strategic dilemmas facing Georgia in its deepening cooperation with China within the context of global power competition and Western security architecture integration. As China's Belt and Road Initiative expands into the South Caucasus, small states like Georgia face a critical challenge: how to leverage economic opportunities from the East while maintaining security guarantees from the West. The study analyzes whether a balanced and institutionally strengthened strategic model of Georgia-China cooperation can simultaneously enhance economic benefits and ensure compatibility with Western security structures.

The research employs neorealist theoretical frameworks, particularly focusing on hedging strategies and multi-vector foreign policy approaches suitable for small states operating between competing great powers. Through comparative analysis of Vietnam, South Korea, and Estonia—countries that have successfully balanced economic engagement with China while maintaining Western security orientations—the study identifies key principles for managing asymmetric relationships without falling into structural dependence.

The analysis reveals three critical dimensions of Georgia-China relations: economic cooperation, which offers trade and infrastructure benefits but carries risks of debt dependency and political leverage; technological engagement, particularly concerning 5G infrastructure and cybersecurity, where Chinese involvement raises sovereignty and data security concerns incompatible with NATO and EU standards; and geopolitical implications, where deepening ties with Beijing could be perceived as strategic drift by Western partners upon whom Georgia depends for security guarantees against Russian aggression.

The research demonstrates that economic cooperation with China becomes beneficial only under conditions of robust institutional oversight, transparent governance, competitive procurement processes, and clear strategic boundaries that prevent economic ties from transforming into political influence channels. The study emphasizes that technological integration with Chinese companies operating under state control poses critical risks to Georgia's information sovereignty and long-term compatibility with Western security systems. Furthermore, analysis confirms that China cannot serve as a security counterweight to Russia in the South Caucasus, making Western security architecture indispensable for Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

The main conclusion supports the hypothesis that a balanced and institutionally strengthened strategic model—characterized by transparent governance, multi-vector partnerships, and clear "red lines" in sensitive sectors—can enable Georgia to derive economic benefits from China while preserving strategic autonomy and Western security alignment. However, this requires Georgia to implement strict institutional controls, particularly in critical infrastructure and technology sectors; maintain full synchronization with EU and NATO security standards; and adopt a hedging strategy that diversifies economic partnerships without compromising core security priorities.

The study recommends that Georgia: (1) institutionally separate economic cooperation with China from security policy, which must remain firmly anchored in Western architecture; (2) strengthen transparency and oversight mechanisms for all Chinese investment and infrastructure projects; (3) align technological policy fully with EU and US security standards, especially regarding 5G and critical infrastructure; and (4) deepen coordination with Western partners to ensure foreign policy positioning does not create strategic ambiguity. The research concludes that for small states in competitive geopolitical environments, survival depends not on choosing between great powers but on maintaining strategic autonomy through carefully calibrated balance—securing economic development opportunities while preserving sovereignty and security guarantees from reliable partners.